No bubbly yet at the Treasury - this may be as good as it gets

10 April 2012

Things are certainly looking up.

But neither George Osborne or Mervyn King will be cracking open the champagne just yet.

The fear is that this is as good as it gets for the economy and the bounce out of recession came at a time when things could hardly have got any worse.

Deep cuts to government spending, job losses in the public sector, little or no wage growth at a time when food and fuel prices are rising, and the VAT increase to 20% all pose risks to the recovery.

The supply of money to households and businesses remains constrained. Banks insist they are lending but businesses disagree. And while the public finances are improving, 2010-11 was never the year to worry about.

Reducing borrowing from £155 billion last year to £149 billion this year is the easy bit. The hard bit will be cutting it to £116 billion next year and then to just £20 billion in 2015-16.

The third quarter of the year has certainly got off to a flying start, and maybe, just maybe, the second quarter's stellar growth figure of 1.1% was not a one-off.

But I wouldn't count on it.

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