R number in UK drops again to between 1.1 and 1

There has been a sharp rise in the number of London Ambulance staff who have quit
Getty Images
20 November 2020

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK has dropped again.

Data released on Friday by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) shows the estimate for R for the whole of the UK is between 1 and 1.1.

Last week, the R number was between 1 and 1.2.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.

An R number between 1 and 1.1 means that on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 11 other people.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage.

The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between 0 per cent and plus 2 per cent for the UK as a whole.

It means the number of new infections is growing by 0 per cent to 2 per cent every day.

Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range, according to the experts.

Sage also said the figures published on Friday more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the present situation.

Scientists advising the Government said the estimates of R and growth rates have fallen slightly in recent weeks but do not reflect the lockdown measures that came into force in England on November 5.

They said: “Sage are not confident that R is currently above 1 in England, although this will not be fully reflected yet in the data streams on which our models are based.

“These estimates are based on the latest data available up to November 17, and do not yet accurately reflect the interventions introduced in England on November 5.”

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Sign up you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy notice .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in