Ireland should roll on in Six Nations but England could be up against it

The Six Nations is back this weekend with Ireland now strong favourites to retain their title after their comprehensive win in France last Friday.

The QBE Predictor was spot on in forecasting that Ireland, England and Scotland would all claim away wins in round one, and it calculates Ireland now have a 78 per cent chance of going on to retain the tournament trophy, up from 46 per cent before a ball had been kicked, and the Predictor believes there is a 39 per cent possibility that the Irish will go on to claim back-to-back Grand Slams.

Standard Sport has again teamed up with QBE Business Insurance to provide more predictions for the Six Nations. The Predictor simulates the tournament 10,000 times, producing outcomes from 150,000 games, with every match replicated by generating the number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team.

The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, and the international experience of each team captain.

Wales demonstrated how hard it is to forecast results last weekend when they went 27-0 down to Scotland with a poor first-half display before roaring back to only lose by a single point.

The good news for Welsh fans is that the Predictor is forecasting a 24-22 win for Warren Gatland’s team at Twickenham on Saturday, which would be their first victory there since 2012.

Evening Standard Rugby Podcast host Lawrence Dallaglio begs to differ, though. “The Six Nations is the most competitive international rugby in the world,” he said. “There are so many factors that could affect the end result of games and on this occasion, I disagree with the Predictor and think that England will win at Twickenham.”

QBE Insurance helps businesses build resilience through risk management and insurance. For more information, go to QBEeurope.com